The Great Lakes Region's escalating conflict, triggered by the M23 rebellion's renewed offensive in South Kivu, highlights the failures of current peace efforts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This article explores the reasons behind the peace processes' inability to prevent the escalation, focusing on regional dynamics and international pressures.
The Peace Process's Limitations
The Washington Accords, signed by the presidents of Rwanda and the DRC, reaffirm commitments to a June 2025 peace agreement and a Regional Economic Integration Framework. However, the accords exclude M23, which is engaged in parallel talks with the government in Doha. The Doha track, despite producing a framework agreement in November, has made little progress on establishing a ceasefire or political and security arrangements.
Rwanda's continued support for M23, coupled with Kinshasa's reluctance to offer concessions, exacerbates the situation. African-led efforts, such as the merged Luanda and Nairobi processes, are overshadowed by the Doha and Washington processes and lack a political process to break the deadlock.
International Pressure and Coercive Instruments
International pressure on key conflict parties remains insufficient. The US and Qatar, through their mediation roles, prioritize investments and access to raw materials, rather than coercive measures like sanctions. The low cost of expanding the war further weakens international norms against aggression, while democratic backsliding and political instability in the DRC have elicited only muted international responses.
Internal and Regional Drivers
The M23 rebellion in the DRC reflects and fuels broader armed mobilization rooted in unresolved conflicts over land, local power, and the presence of foreign rebel groups. Local actors, including militias, have criticized their exclusion from peace talks. 'Silver bullet' solutions, such as the neutralization of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), are unlikely to succeed without addressing the wider mobilization dynamics reinforced by foreign forces.
Regional Dynamics and Neighboring States
Neighboring Uganda and Burundi have also shaped the M23 crisis through their bilateral deployments in eastern DRC. These operations serve a mix of interests, some competing or conflicting with Rwanda's. Kigali's relations with its neighbors are complex, with ambiguous ties to Kampala and openly tense relations with Burundi.
Efforts to normalize Burundi-Rwanda relations after Burundi's 2015 political crisis failed due to renewed tensions over the deployment of Burundian soldiers in eastern DRC against M23 and accusations of Rwandan support to Burundian rebels. This prompted Burundi to close its border with Rwanda in 2024, with Rwanda and M23 accusing Burundi of backing the FDLR.
Humanitarian Crisis and Regional Instability
The local situation in South Kivu has worsened, with M23's entry last year, the capture of Bukavu, and alliance with the Twirwaneho armed group. This, coupled with Burundian support to Congolese military operations, has restricted humanitarian access and contributed to M23's offensive and push for Burundian withdrawal.
The offensive carries dire consequences for Burundi, with over 60,000 Congolese refugees fleeing into the country, while tens of thousands of Burundian refugees face forced return from Tanzania. The prolonged economic crisis and heavy dependence on the Congolese market deepen Burundi's vulnerability, as regional instability worsens.
Addressing the Conflict
There is an urgent need to secure the withdrawal of Rwandan forces and end external support for armed groups. This requires a shift from parallel peace processes to a sequenced approach, with Rwandan disengagement conditioning actions against the FDLR and peace dialogue. The broader regionalization of conflict must also be addressed to prevent further involvement and the presence of foreign forces.
Regional bodies, such as the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region, should be involved, and the process should be anchored in UN Security Council Resolution 2773, which calls for the withdrawal of M23 and Rwandan troops and the restoration of Congolese State authority in M23-held areas. This should promote an inclusive regional process that manages the regional fallout from the eastern DRC conflict and tackles the regional drivers sustaining armed mobilization in the DRC.
