The future of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is at a crossroads, and a new report by Carbon Direct reveals a startling bottleneck: hesitant buyers. Are we missing the boat on climate action?
In their 2026 State of the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) report, Carbon Direct highlights a market poised for expansion, but buyer hesitancy threatens its potential. While the infrastructure and scientific advancements are in place, and policies are emerging to foster growth, the report warns that the future of CDR is uncertain due to a lack of buyer engagement.
Here's the catch: many organizations with 2030 climate targets have yet to embrace CDR procurement. This delay could be a missed opportunity, as scientists suggest that CDR can accelerate climate action. Sanna O'Connor-Morberg, a Carbon Direct strategist, emphasizes the urgency, stating that the market needs immediate action to meet the scale required by 2030.
But here's where it gets controversial: the report suggests that CDR's inclusion in net-zero strategies and mandatory demand creation could be game-changers. However, without present demand, future progress is in jeopardy.
By 2050, the CDR market could reach an impressive two gigatonnes, according to demand projections. But the current buyer activity paints a different picture, with the removals market at a mere 8 million tonnes, a tiny fraction of the potential. O'Connor-Morberg stresses the need for decisive buyer action, as climate risks intensify.
Bodie Cabiyo, Carbon Direct's Director of Interdisciplinary Science, offers a unique perspective. Early buyers, they note, gain strategic advantages, including better pricing and supply security, while also enabling critical climate solutions. Yet, CDR currently accounts for only 6% of the VCM, indicating a significant gap.
The report also sheds light on the scarcity of high-quality CDR supply, with only 10% of projects meeting rigorous standards. Despite this, the potential for impactful CDR solutions is higher than ever. Over 90 Mt of CDR is contracted for future delivery, but the market distribution favors nature-based solutions (95%) over high-durability approaches (5%).
And this is the part most people miss: while nature-based solutions gain traction, they may not be enough to meet 2030 targets without new buyers. High-durability CDR approaches face even greater challenges, with many projects at risk due to insufficient demand. The report concludes that translating corporate climate commitments into purchasing action is the key to unlocking CDR's potential.
What do you think? Is buyer hesitancy a temporary hurdle or a sign of deeper issues? Share your thoughts on this controversial topic and help shape the conversation on the future of CDR!
